Tomato Processing Update: How Will Record Heat Impact Global Supply? Italy Shines, But for How Long?

Latest Updates on Global Tomato Processing

Harvest has already started in the northern hemisphere countries, with the only change being an increase in the expected processing volumes for Italy.

AMITOM COUNTRY

Bulgaria

Unsettled weather in recent weeks, with high temperatures, rain, and hail, is not expected to impact crop yields. Reports indicate high levels of mite infestations.

Egypt

Following last week's warmer temperatures, this week's average temperature will be 36-37°C. Harvesting of summer crops is expected to continue until the end of August.

France

By the end of last week (week 31), just under 30,000 tons of tomatoes had been processed in the Southeast, 15% of which were organic. This represents 15.6% of the total volume and 20% of the organic contract volume. Mills in the Southwest began operating in week 32. Fruit quality is good, with a low refractive index of 4.6%. The average weighted Brix level reported by mills is 5.25. Field yields for the early season crop are currently good to very good. Whether the main season crop will perform similarly well remains to be seen, as it was impacted by a heatwave in late June/early July. A second heatwave is expected this weekend and next week, which could impact the crop. Currently, the forecast remains for a contracted volume of 175,000 tons.

Greece

The weather has been erratic over the past few weeks, with rain, hail, and heatwaves, but these have had no significant impact on the crop. Approximately 30% of the crop has been harvested in the south, and about 15% in the north and central regions. Fruit color is good, with a Brix level of around 5°. The forecast remains unchanged.

Hungary

Tomato fields remain of excellent quality, free of pests and diseases. Due to weather conditions, field maturity is below average, and harvest is expected to begin after mid-August. Based on current conditions, the annual forecast remains unchanged.

Iran

The southern crop is nearing completion, and harvesting is continuing in the central, western, and northern regions until late August/early September. A heat wave is currently underway, with temperatures exceeding 42°C in the south. The impact on crops is unclear (perhaps sunburn?), but farmers are accustomed to managing the heat through mitigation measures. Production is expected to be between 1.6 and 1.7 million tons.

Italy

In the north, approximately 700,000 tons had been harvested as of August 3rd, with good fruit color and an average Brix level of 5.2. The early season crop is nearing completion, and the mid-season crop is beginning. Harvest will begin next week, a two-week period. Weather conditions are favorable, with daytime temperatures ranging from 32-33°C and nighttime temperatures of 20-22°C. Rainfall in eastern Emilia-Romagna last week interrupted harvesting for 24 hours. There are no major field problems, with only a few mite infestations. Late season crops are in better-than-expected condition, leading to an upward revision of the forecast from 3 million to 3.2 million tons, depending on favorable weather conditions before harvest is completed.

In the north, approximately 700,000 tons had been harvested as of August 3rd, with good fruit color and an average Brix level of 5.2. The early season crop is nearing completion, and the mid-season crop is beginning. Harvest will begin next week, a two-week period. Weather conditions are favorable, with daytime temperatures ranging from 32-33°C and nighttime temperatures of 20-22°C. Rainfall in eastern Emilia-Romagna last week interrupted harvesting for 24 hours. There are no major field problems, with only a few mite infestations. Late season crops are in better-than-expected condition, leading to an upward revision of the forecast from 3 million to 3.2 million tons, depending on favorable weather conditions before harvest is completed.

Italy's overall forecast was raised to 5.8 million tons from 5.6 million tons.

Portugal

Temperatures have been somewhat volatile. After a week-long heatwave in mid-June, an unexpected heatwave returned last week, but daytime temperatures are currently a cool 30°C, with nights beginning to cool. High temperatures have led to the emergence of mites and diseases, and the potential impact on crop yields requires further assessment. The first plant started up today, with several others slated for tomorrow. These plants may pause over the weekend and resume next week, with other plants to follow. Production is expected to stabilize from August 16-17. The forecast remains unchanged.

Spanish

The harvest in Andalusia began on July 24, two weeks later than expected, and reached full production this week. Yields are currently normal, and fruit quality is good. Despite hotter than usual weather, the harvest is proceeding relatively smoothly.

In Extremadura, the first plant started up at the end of July, most plants in the Vegas Altas region started up this week, and plants in the Vegas Baja region will start up next week. The impact of the current heat wave, which began last Saturday and is expected to continue into next week, with temperatures around 40°C and high night temperatures, remains uncertain.

Tunisia

Currently, only nine factories are in operation, and they have processed about 780,000 tons of tomatoes so far.

Türkiye

There are no major developments, and the forecast remains unchanged. Harvest in the south will conclude this week, with mills in the Bursa region gradually opening from today until next week. Fruit quality is generally good at the start of the harvest, with average color and sugar levels. The heatwave has ended, and cooler weather is expected for the next two weeks.

OTHER COUNTRIES

California

This week's processing estimate is 931,047 short tons (842,632 metric tons). By the end of this week (week ending August 9), a cumulative total of 3,266,760 short tons (2,962,865 metric tons) had been processed. Little change has occurred since the previous report. The crop is currently performing at or above contract expectations. Overall quality is very good, with excellent planting and growing conditions reflecting the quality of deliveries. Full production capacity for the season is currently nearing or already reached.

Canada

13,775 acres (5,575 hectares) are planted, with harvest due to begin next week. So far, the summer has been warm and wet, with sporadic rainfall.

Japan

The forecast remains unchanged at 25,000 tonnes from 420 hectares. In Hokkaido and Tohoku, continued high temperatures and drought from late June to July are leading to an increase in disease and reduced fruit size, which could result in lower production.

South Africa

South Africa's winter-producing regions have experienced cooler weather over the past two weeks, but this has not resulted in significant deviations from planned production. With over 81% of production already processed, the forecast for the 2025 season remains unchanged at 160,000 tonnes.

Supplementary:

China

As of August 12, factories in southern and northern Xinjiang have resumed operations and started purchasing raw materials in an orderly manner. The purchase price of raw materials is settled according to the price agreed in the contract. The Inner Mongolia area has not yet started operations.